Analysis of National Crime Victimization Survey Data to Study Serious Delinquent Behavior. Monograph Four : Juvenile Criminal Behavior and Its Relation to Economic Conditions / Kenneth R. Danser and John H. Laub.

Quarterly offending data from the National Crime Survey 1973-78 (NCS) were used to address the question: what effect do economic conditions have on criminal behavior over time? A total rate of offending in personal crimes as well as crime specific rates for robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault were examined. Analysis focused on three major issues. The first involved analysis of the general relationship between economic conditions (unemployment, Consumer Price Index, and Gross National Product) and overall rates of offending (total, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault). These economic conditions were shown not to be related to NCS rates of offending. The second issue was the relationship between age-race-sex specific rates of offending. Analysis found virtually no relationship between quarterly fluctuation. The third major issue was the interrelationship between adult unemployment and juvenile crime. Sex and race specific adult unemployment rates were correlated with comparable sex and race offending rates for juvenile (12-17) and youthful (18-20) offenders. Only four of 32 relationships were found statistically significant. (Appendixes, amounting to approximately one-half of the report, include annotations and references to relevant literature, NCS questionnaire, offender age in NCS data, and bibliography.) (YLB)

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