On Manpower Forecasting. Methods for Manpower Analysis, No.2 / J. E. Morton.

Some of the problems and techniques involved in manpower forecasting are discussed. This non-technical introduction to the field aims at reducing fears of data manipulation methods and at increasing respect for conceptual, logical, and analytical issues. The major approaches to manpower forecasting are explicated and evaluated under the headings: (1) Some Curve-Fitting Techniques, involving essentially the methods of population forecasting, (2) Dire"t Manpower Forecasts, which make use of manpower variables only, (3) Derived Manpower Forecasts, which rely on safely predictable variables (population or economic) which are associated with manpower variables, and (4) Econometric Models, which mathematically depict relationships of single or multiple variables. An introductory section discusses the role of manpower forecasting and its historical development. The concluding section reviews the forecasting techniques in terms of the following dichotomies: (1) short-term versus long-term forecasting, (2) stochastic versus the deterministic approach, (3) point versus interval forecasts, (4) unconditional versus conditional forecasts, and (5) first-order versus higher-order forecasts. (ET)

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