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750924s1975 xx ||| b ||| s eng d |
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|a ED116728 Microfiche
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|a ericd
|c ericd
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| 049 |
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|a EEM#
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| 099 |
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|a ED116728 Microfiche
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| 100 |
1 |
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|a Finch, Harold L.
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| 245 |
1 |
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|a Declining Enrollment: Why? :
|b What Are the Trends and Implications?; and Enrollment Forecasting Techniques /
|c Harold L. Finch and Elaine L. Tatham.
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| 260 |
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|a [Place of publication not identified] :
|b Distributed by ERIC Clearinghouse,
|c 1975.
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| 300 |
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|a 39 pages
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| 336 |
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|a text
|b txt
|2 rdacontent
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| 337 |
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|a microform
|b h
|2 rdamedia
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| 338 |
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|a microfiche
|b he
|2 rdacarrier
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| 500 |
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|a ERIC Note: Paper presented at the Meeting on Coping with Declining Enrollments (Hyannis, Massachusetts, September 24, 1975). Appendix A (sample printouts) may reproduce poorly.
|5 ericd
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| 520 |
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|a This document presents a modified cohort survival model which can be of use in making enrollment projections. The model begins by analytically profiling an area's residents. Each person's demographic characteristics--sex, age, place of residence--are recorded in the computer memory. Four major input variables are then incorporated into the model: (1) death rate--deaths are projected for males and females as a function of the number of people for each age; (2) birth rate--three equations are offered, with the most popular projecting the number of births by using the fertility rates of women by age; (3) net migration--total subarea net migration (the number of people moving in minus the number of people moving out of a given area) is assigned by age and sex; (4) land use--designations are based on zoning. Categories employed in this model are: special, agricultural, industrial, commercial, residential (low, medium, and high density), and unzoned. Zoning is specified for the beginning year, and the user has the option of incorporating anticipated zoning changes into the model. Mathematical and computer procedures used in this model include regression analysis and the two-point logistic curve. A hypothetical application of the model is presented, and practice problems are proposed. Sample printouts are appended. (NHM)
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| 533 |
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|a Microfiche.
|b [Washington D.C.]:
|c ERIC Clearinghouse
|e microfiches : positive.
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| 500 |
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|a Microform.
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Birth Rate.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Community Zoning.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Computer Programs.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Death.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
1 |
7 |
|a Demography.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
1 |
7 |
|a Educational Planning.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
1 |
7 |
|a Enrollment Projections.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
1 |
7 |
|a Mathematical Models.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Migration Patterns.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Multiple Regression Analysis.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Research Methodology.
|2 ericd
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| 650 |
0 |
7 |
|a Residential Patterns.
|2 ericd
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| 653 |
0 |
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|a Cohort Survival
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| 655 |
|
7 |
|a Speeches/Meeting Papers.
|2 ericd
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| 700 |
1 |
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|a Tatham, Elaine L.,
|e author.
|0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n87831942
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| 710 |
2 |
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|a Johnson County Community College (Overland Park, Kan.)
|0 http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/nr96027088
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|p Non-Circulating
|a Michigan State University-Library of Michigan
|b Michigan State University
|c MSU Microforms
|d MSU Microforms, 2 West
|t 0
|e ED116728 Microfiche
|h Other scheme
|i Microform (Microfilm/Microfiche)
|n 1
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