Stability and Change in Farming Plans : Results from a Longitudinal Study of Young Adults / Thomas A. Lyson.

To examine 2 shortcomings of previous cross-sectional farm recruitment research, the study population of the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972, consisting of 14,112 individuals who completed the base year questionnaire and 3 subsequent follow-up questionnaires, was divided into analytic sub-groups based on senior year occupational ambitions, occupational attainment for 4 years after high school, and expected occupation at age 30. Two questions were addressed: (1) the relationship between farming plans and attainment of a farm job; and (2) background factors and social conditions associated with the temporal sequencing of farm plans, the attainment of a farm job, or the decision to abandon a farm career and pursue other options. Results showed that farming plans expressed by high school seniors on social surveys were poor predictors of attaining a farm job; most individuals working in farm jobs four years after high school did not report farming plans in high school; and formation of farming plans and/or attainment of a farm job were related to previous exposure to agriculture at home and in school. Data reaffirmed that unless a young person is from a farm background, he/she has little chance of becoming a farmer. (Author/CM)

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