Critical Trends and Events Affecting the Future of Texas Higher Education. Proceedings of the Texas Association for Institutional Research (TAIR) Preconference Workshop on Environmental Scanning (1995) / James L. Morrison.

This proceedings report describes exercises used in a workshop on environmental scanning, designed to assist institutional research officers to develop competency in establishing and maintaining an external analysis capability on their campuses. The workshop offered an opportunity for participants to experience several techniques used in anticipatory strategic management, and was designed to enable participants to replicate the workshop on their campuses. Group exercises are outlined, including: (1) identification of critical trends; (2) identification of potential events that would affect the future of Texas higher education, the impact of the events, and actions for college and university leaders to take in anticipation of the events; (3) probability/impact analysis, which examines reasoning behind estimates of event probabilities; and (4) impact network analysis, which assesses first, second, and third order impacts of an event. Examples of the outcomes of these exercises are provided. Information resources that can inform campus planning are also discussed, including "Horizon List," an Internet resource where individuals can respond to draft articles on emerging trends and potential events; "Horizon Home Page," a futures planning database of abstracts; and "On the Horizon," a newsletter. (JDD)

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